Andrew Mount's Racing Tips
Andrew Mount's Racing Tips 27.12.24
Andrew heads to the Welsh National meeting at Chepstow, Kempton and Wolverhampton for four recommended bets/trades on Friday, December 27th…
CHEPSTOW 2.50
Since racing resumed after lockdown in June 2020, Sam Thomas has fared exceptionally well with fresh horses. Those returning from a break of at least 90 days have won 24 of their 121 starts (19.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £26.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 20.34, A/E = 1.18). The chasers were 13 from 45 (28.9%) for a profit of £47.03 (expected winners = 7.82, A/E = 1.66). The last two qualifiers produced a 25-1 winner (Al Dancer by ten lengths in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase) and a 20-1 runner-up (Our Power in a Premier Handicap Chase at Cheltenham). He has two runners who are making their seasonal return in the Welsh Grand National – 2021 winner (also third last year) IWILLDOIT and JUBILEE EXPRESS. Buy both in the Sporting Index 50-30-20-10 market or back them each way at 12-1 and 17-2 respectively.
Recommendation: Back IWILLDOIT and JUBILEE EXPRESS in Chepstow 2.50
KEMPTON 3.38
The Alan King-trained BIG BOY BOBBY has been off the track for 629 days, but his trainer’s early-season break-returners have a fine recent record, and he may be able to overcome the absence on his favoured fast going. Since 2020, backing his runners in the September to December period who had been off the track for 150 days or longer would have found 51 winners from 230 bets (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £46.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 33.99, A/E = 1.50). BIG BOY BOBBY only went down by a head when runner-up in this race two years ago and his full record over hurdles on right-handed tracks below Graded level reads 22F12 (1-5). Buy in the Sporting Index 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back BIG BOY BOBBY in Kempton 3.38
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
PALAZZO PERSICO scored comfortably enough at Chelmsford last time but that was at the meeting on December 5th when the inside rail rode ‘dead’ and all bar one of the winners came from well off the pace, most of them with a wide run down the middle of the track. Ed Dunlop’s three-year-old, who was wearing a visor for the first time, was initially switched to the inner from stall 8 of 12 but was pulled out to challenge on the quickest part of the track and may have been flattered. Stall 1 is going to make life difficult for his patient running style this evening and his record on Tapeta of 4508 (0-4) is another concern. Sell in the Sporting Index 50-30-20-10 market. ENGLISH SPIRIT has won five of his 13 starts at this venue and his record when drawn between stalls 2 and 6 reads 1211 (3-4), with the defeat by a head. He has stall 5 today and looks the best option for fixed odds punters.
Recommendation: Oppose PALAZZO PERSICO in Wolverhampton 7.30
Please note that the picks recommended in this blog post are based on past performance and should not be considered a guarantee for future winning outcomes, and it is important to remember that spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. The views within this preview are those of Andrew Mount, professional tipster and journalist, and not those of Sporting Index.
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