Andrew Mount's Racing Tips 23.10.24

Andrew heads to the jumps meetings at Fontwell and Southwell for his two recommended bets/trades on Wednesday, October 23rd.

FONTWELL 3.05

The Ben Pauling-trained SAMAZUL is likely to improve for the switch to fences this season but today’s going – officially soft, heavy in places – is not going to help when he makes his chase debut in this Class 5 contest. The six-year-old has encountered mud on three occasions since landing a good-ground Southwell bumper in December 2022, finishing fourth of six, 15^th of 18 and third of five, going down by 25 lengths when starting as the evens favourite. Sell at 15 in the Sporting Index 50-25-10 market. Fixed odds punters might want to side with top weight HATOS, who makes his debut for in-form Joe Tizzard.

Recommendation: Oppose SAMAZUL in Fontwell 3.05

SOUTHWELL 4.28

October has been an odd month for Paul Nicholls with plenty of short-priced horses disappointing, while others have drifted markedly in the betting before winning. He’s won with just three of his 24 runners (12.5%) for a loss of £9.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (-40.6% on turnover) against an expected winners scored of 6.40 (A/E = 0.47). He has three runners today, two at Fontwell and WICKED THOUGHTS, the odds-on favourite for the maiden hurdle at Southwell (4.28). The five-year-old landed a Musselburgh bumper on his second run last term, despite hanging to his left, but was beaten into third when 13-8 favourite at Ffos Las on his reappearance and it’s possible that today’s run will also bring him on. It’s also possible that he won’t take to the fixed brush style hurdles at Southwell, and I’d rather take a chance on outsider ROCKET MAN. Emma Lavelle’s five-year-old was sent off as the even-money favourite for his debut in a six-runner bumper at Warwick in May but could only finish a nine-length fourth after becoming outpaced in a steadily-run affair. He also lost his position at a crucial stage before staying on late in a Worcester bumper the following month and the step up to 3m could be the making of him on his hurdles debut. Buy in the Sporting Index 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price (9-1 at the time of writing).

Recommendation: Back ROCKET MAN in Southwell 4.28

Please note that the picks recommended in this blog post are based on past performance and should not be considered a guarantee for future winning outcomes, and it is important to remember that spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. The views within this preview are those of Andrew Mount, professional tipster and journalist, and not those of Sporting Index.