Andrew Mount's Racing Tips 18.10.24

Andrew heads to Redcar and Fakenham for his three stats-based selections on Friday, October 18th…

REDCAR 1.22

BAD HABITS (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)

First the bad news – BAD HABITS has the worst of the draw in stall 9 of 9 in this 6f novice stakes. However, on a more positive note, George Boughey’s 78,000gns purchase won’t have to be much to make a winning debut as his rivals have hardly set the world alight on the clock (all bar one of them have previous experience). Backing all Amo Racing-owned newcomers, regardless of age and trainer, would have found 48 winners from 233 bets (20.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £26.23 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 38.04, A/E = 1.26). Those who ran at Redcar recorded form figures of 4131 (2-4), with the winners at 6-1 and 7-2.

FAKENHAM 2.00

THE EXPENSIVE ONE (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, chasers and hurdlers in October, conditional jockey)

In recent columns, I’ve discussed the fine record of Nigel Twiston-Davies at this time of year and if we had in the proviso that his October runners must have been chasers or hurdlers who were ridden by a conditional jockey claiming at least 3lb his record since 2013 becomes 39 winners from 172 bets (22.7%) for a profit of £56.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. THE EXPENSIVE ONE, runner-up at Newton Abbot last time, qualifies today and can go one better.

FAKENHAM 4.55

UP FOR APPEAL (system – Christian William, long travellers)

Christian Williams does well with ‘long travellers’, horses shipped more than 250 miles from his Welsh base, scoring with 45 of the 173 qualifiers (26%) for a profit of £18.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 33.52, A/E = 1.34). Those who started in the front three in the betting were 40 from 118 (33.9%) for a profit of £26.58. UP FOR APPEAL (12-1 best at the time of writing) is unlikely to fall into the atter category but still looks worth a small interest in the hope that the first-time cheekpieces have a positive impact.

Please note that the picks recommended in this blog post are based on past performance and should not be considered a guarantee for future winning outcomes, and it is important to remember that spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. The views within this preview are those of Andrew Mount, professional tipster and journalist, and not those of Sporting Index.