Andrew Mount's Racing Tips 04.07.24

Andrew heads to Perth and Newbury’s evening Flat card for his three stats-selections on General Election Day (Thursday,  July 4th).

PERTH 3.18

PLANNED PARADISE (System – Christian Williams, Long Travellers)

Since the beginning of 2019, Christian Williams has a 38 from 149 record (25.5% strike-rate) with his long travellers – defined as runners shipped more than 250 miles from his Welsh base. Backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £15.68 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 29.21, A/E = 1.30). PLANNED PARADISE, the first of his four runners today, was only sixth of nine here last month but that was in Class 3 company, and he drops to Class 5 level for the first time in his career. The likely strong pace will suit this hold-up performer and any rain will aid his cause.

NEWBURY 7.20

WAR HOWL (System – Brian Meehan, 2yo Debut, Colts And Geldings Only)

Brian Meehan has a good recent record with his juvenile debutants, with the colts and geldings landing 12 of their 95 starts since 2018 for a profit of £79.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. WAR HOWL, a gelded son of Bated Breath, is likely to be a double-figure price and is worth a small interest in the hope that he can cause an upset.

NEWBURY 9.00

NEW KINGS ROAD (System – Sioux Nation, Small Fields)

Progeny of Sioux Nation seem happiest in small fields, landing 96 of their 532 starts (18.1%) in fields of ten or fewer runners for a profit of £83.26 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 79.58, A/E = 1.21). Those who finished second, third or fourth on their latest start were 51 from 171 (29.8%) for a profit of £94.10 (expected winners = 35.25, A/E = 1.45). NEW KINGS ROAD, successful in a field of seven runners at Salisbury on her penultimate start, was only beaten by half a length when bidding to follow up at Pontefract. That defeat can be upgraded as he helped to contribute to a very strong gallop, setting it up for the closers, and the prominently-ridden 25-1 fifth, Visibility, boosted the form when scoring at Pontefract earlier this week.

Please note that the picks recommended in this blog post are based on past performance and should not be considered a guarantee for future winning outcomes, and it is important to remember that spread betting carries a high level of risk to your capital and can result in losses larger than your initial stake/deposit. The views within this preview are those of Andrew Mount, professional tipster and journalist, and not those of Sporting Index.